For ATRN longs

3 Nov

I felt sad about our loss. ATRN may become Kazaa. So set a limit sell at 8% less than current closing price. Watch carefully about the bottom of the price. Start with a small postion. When it is double conformed, load as much as you can. Do not forget to limit the loss within 8%.

Wish you get some money back.

Hints for Skill to Stabilize the Value

29 Sep

The Wall St group of our Open Team is not happy, the publishing group is not happy and the Main St group is not happy recently. ATRN shorts dropped the stock too much when our shareholders are absolutely confident. It is very ugly and a violation of trading rule. They will get punishment no later than next week.

After two months observation, we discovered the weakness of shorts, and found out the skill to stabilize the value. We can give you some hints now. When we worked on stage 2, we realized how hard to invite new buyers in this market. So we will create buyers ourselves. The idea of the skill basically is to keep buying when the opportunity like yesterday comes. It is inspired from one of our new buyers who placed an order and caused the stock increasing over two points. To realize the skill, you do not need to be rich. The fee will actually be paid by shorts. But the more you invest on ATRN, the more profit you will obtain. With this new skill, our smart longs should be able to stabilize the value. With the help from new buyers who trust us, our Open Team should be able to realize the full potential of ATRN-Kazaa. We do not need to count on the five catalysts, and count on the team work ourselves. With this new skill, new buyers will get the profit much bigger and much faster than you expect. With this skill, our smart longs should be able to get out of the trap gradually, and start to make some profit. We will post it on yahoo message board or flying website in the weekend.

Discussion of Facebook Music Integration including ATRN-Kazaa

27 Sep

After two months observation, we discovered the weakness of shorts, and found out the skill to stabilize the value. We will post it either here or on flying website in the weekend.

https://flying123m.wordpress.com/

A hint: we will keep about 30% cash flow, and keep buying when the opportunity like today comes.

The first catalyst to promote stock ATRN is Facebook music integration including ATRN-Kazaa.

Facebook Open Graph is open to every qualified company, and welcomes any good company to join in the future. Facebook announced that it has partnered up with Spotify, Turntable.fm, Vevo, MOG, iHeartRadio and a dozen other music services that will enable this new feature. The current companies integrated are listed as following, and may increase in the future.

MOG, Rhapsody, Spotify, Soundcloud, Pandora, Turntable.fm, Last.fm, Napster, Kazaa (ATRN), Groovershark, Deezer (France), VEVO, iHeartRadio, Earbits, Mixcloud, Earbits, Songza

If you check the following link, you will find out the proof that Facebook music integration including ATRN-Kazaa.

http://www.facebook.com/apps/application.php?id=124539850896016&sk=reviews

Although Facebook open graph plan is big and novel, they still use third parties Apps because of its convenient and efficiency. As most companies included in Facebook music integration, Kazaa App belongs to the category of “Entertainment”. It includes four keys: Info, Wall, Discussion and Reviews. It is different from their usual Facebook site:

http://www.facebook.com/Kazaa?sk=wall

The chance of ATRN-Kazaa being included in Facebook music integration is definite. All information we got indicated ATRN-Kazaa already included. There is no single reason why ATRN-Kazaa had not been included, while similar or smaller companies are included. We shouldn’t wait too long for the final announcement from either ATRN or Facebook.

The bottom line is that Facebook news will boost the whole section of music service companies. ATRN may benefit a lot from being one of only two streaming music services to be publicly traded (Pandora is the other) and it is the only publicly traded “on demand” streaming music service. I guess ATRN will get bigger return because ATRN longs and MMs are more confident. If 5% of the traders (volume) in Pandora brought that capital to ATRN, the stock could easily move over $10 in a week.

By the way, ATRN got strong financial support from a billionaire. He just got a huge return from his recent deal. Because of his interests and ambitions, he will not let Kazaa fail ever and forever. Former President, CEO of Bertelsmann Direct North America and former Chief Marketing Officer of Bertelsmann Direct North America joined ATRN. A small reason is Kazaa platform, and a big reason is his invitation. The MMs and insiders keep increasing the holding of ATRN recently, and never sell a share even when stock dropped a lot. For example, Trinad Capital raises stake in Atrinsic to 8.3% from 6.8%. It is because of his reputation. Kazaa releases iPhone app, stepping up to compete with Spotify. It is because of his ambitions.

Facebook, National Federation of Independent Business, and U.S. Chamber of Commerce Announce Boost for Small Businesses

26 Sep

PR Newswire US
26 September 2011

[What follows is the full text of the news story.]

PALO ALTO, Calif., Sept. 26, 2011 /PRNewswire/ — Today, Facebook, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce announced plans to help American small businesses grow and create jobs. The joint effort is designed to help small businesses acquire and retain customers, build a community around their business, and reach new customers among Facebook’s 800 million users.

“Small businesses are the backbone of the American economy and we believe that Facebook can be a tremendous tool to fuel their growth and success,” said Sheryl Sandberg, Facebook Chief Operating Officer. “Our goal is to give small businesses a boost by helping them find customers the best way possible – through recommendations from friends.  We’re proud to be working with the NFIB and U.S. Chamber in this effort.”

“As the nation’s leading small-business advocate, we are always looking for ways to help America’s entrepreneurs,” said NFIB Chief Executive Officer Dan Danner.  “NFIB’s research indicates that poor sales have been the top small-business problem for some time now, so help attracting customers will be most welcome for America’s job creators. We’re excited to partner with Facebook to reach millions of small-business owners who will benefit from this program.”

“Partnering with Facebook offers the Chamber’s small business members an opportunity to leverage one of the world’s most popular communities to connect with current and prospective customers,” said Thomas J. Donohue, president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.  “As small businesses look for new ways to remain competitive, the Chamber will continue to provide innovative solutions for succeeding in an ever-evolving economy.”

In the U.S., small businesses employ more than half of all private sector workers and have generated more than 64% of new jobs over the past 15 years, making them a critical component of the economy.  Facebook has emerged as an important marketing tool for these businesses with more than half of the 800 million people active on Facebook making a connection to a small business. The result is more than 700 millions connections between customers and potential customers to local businesses. That’s why Facebook, NFIB and U.S. Chamber are combining resources, expertise and reach to help small businesses use social media to grow. Specifically, the partners will work together on a number of initiatives to help businesses, including:

  • Resources: The education effort will combine the knowledge and resources of Facebook, NFIB and the U.S. Chamber to provide American local businesses with webinars, collateral, case studies and tips.  These materials will educate business owners on how to improve their connection to customers and reach new customers through the use of free Facebook tools like Pages and Platform, as well as other marketing options including Ads and Sponsored Stories.
  • Roadshows: As a part of this education effort, the program will include a cross-country roadshow coordinated with state and local chambers of commerce and regional NFIB offices.  At these events, experts will meet directly with local businesses to discuss how to get the best results in connecting with customers on Facebook.
  • Facebook Small Business Boost: Starting in January 2012 and following the education effort, Facebook will begin awarding businesses up to $10 million worth of free Facebook advertisements.  The goal of these ad credits is to give 200,000 businesses across the country a $50 boost.

New educational resources developed by the collaboration will begin to become available in the coming weeks as will dates and locations for roadshow events.  For more information: www.facebook.com/smallbusinessboost

About Facebook

Founded in February 2004, Facebook’s mission is to give people the power to share and make the world more open and connected. Anyone can sign up for Facebook and interact with the people they know in a trusted environment. Facebook is a privately held company and is headquartered in Palo Alto, Calif.

Facebook® is a registered trademark of Facebook Inc. Other names may be trademarks of their respective owners.

About NFIB

NFIB is the nation’s leading small business association, with offices in Washington, D.C., and all 50 state capitals. Founded in 1943 as a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, NFIB gives small and independent business owners a voice in shaping the public policy issues that affect their business. NFIB’s powerful network of grassroots activists send their views directly to state and federal lawmakers through our unique member-only ballot, thus playing a critical role in supporting America’s free enterprise system. NFIB’s mission is to promote and protect the right of our members to own, operate and grow their businesses. More information is available online at www.NFIB.com/newsroom.

About The U.S. Chamber of Commerce

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is the world’s largest business federation representing the interests of more than 3 million businesses of all sizes, sectors, and regions, as well as state and local chambers and industry associations. More than 96% of U.S. Chamber members are small businesses with 100 employees or fewer. More information is available online at www.uschamber.com.

SOURCE Facebook; U.S. Chamber of Commerce; NFIB

Step 3: Stabilize the value and realize the full potential

24 Sep

Every stock price is determined by company potential and shareholders’ confidence in the middle and long term.

ATRN has great potential, including the leadership of Stuart Goldfarb team and over 100 million worth of Kazaa license. Then the stock price is only determined by our confidence for ATRN-Kazaa finally. If you want to win big, please be very confident. If we unite, nobody can stop us to make big money, no matter how rich and how powerful they are.

We spent over the whole month to study ATRN-Kazaa. So we probably have the right to initiate an Open Team for ATRN. The Open Team for ATRN is open to every qualified investor, and welcomes any good investors to join in the future. In this team, we respect each other, and have equal right for discussion; no matter you are rich or poor. But we do have a qualification: Every team member must do the best to contribute to build the confidence of stock ATRN.

For those who are not familiar with our action 1 – ATRN, please allow us to make some introduction about our stages:

Stage 1: Protection and lock of your shares

Result: almost 100% completion. Most smart longs hold tight our shares and locked at minimal price $6.15. One of our longs believes this stock will go to $15 in the long term. So he placed a sell order: sell all of my shares at $15. Limit at $15.00. Good ’til Canceled. All or None/Do Not Reduce. Nobody can borrow my shares again. Our shares are locked.

Stage 2: Invite new buyers and realize the potential

Result: As Kazaa music app available for Apple iPhone and iPad, a lot of new buyers are coming. There is no doubt that this step will be completed when ATRN announces one of the five recent catalysts.

Stage 3: Stabilize the value and realize the full potential

Our Open Team for ATRN-Kazaa will work together to build the confidence of ATRN-Kazaa. Since we are successful in step 1 and step 2, we will realize the full potential in step 3. We will obtain the major return from step 3.

We really hope that every team member can complete the first step to lock your shares as most longs did.

Today’s trading is a little bit strange. MM tried his best to get any shares from weak hands. I believe Valuegay is right. One big good day for longs is coming. The trading might be the same as MELA today.

There are five catalysts are coming to promote the ATRN stocks. The first one is Facebook music integration including Kazaa. The second one is the announcement of big investor, and I guess ATRN has already got over 5 million investment from Facebook like company. The third one is the successful continual to list in Nasdaq, or a better solution. The forth one is the new partnership with business giants such as Apple or Google. The fifth one is ATRN-Kazaa involved in Video streaming battle. This is a very hot and profitable field. They will come sooner or later, because ATRN-Kazaa has a dream Open Team, the wonderful leadership of Stuart Goldfarb, the great potential of Kazaa and billionaire’s strong financial support.

WATCH LIST FOR TUESDAY 9/20/2011

20 Sep

Modification from SuperbirdStocks:

ATRN was a little disappointing before, but we’re VERY BULLISH on ATRN & believe it to be the next hot undiscovered stock in a sector that will sure catch fire on Wall Street.  Streaming music is just as big if not BIGGER than streaming movies.  We’ve all seen what NFLX has done over the years rising from $20 to almost $300.  We’re not saying ATRN is going to rise & make you 15x your money, but at current valuations of just slightly over $20 million ATRN is extremely undervalued. ATRN owns the Kazaa streaming music player that allows you to stream as many songs & ring tones directly from their site for just $9.99 per month to ANY mobile device including your iPhone & iPad.  That is a lot better than paying $1.00 for every song at iTunes.  The only publicly traded company in this spaceATRN compares to is recently gone public P – Pandorra & that trades at a valuation of $3 BILLION!  As we’re sure most of you have a Facebook account & notice one thing missing…MUSIC!  Well Facebook is about to launch its Facebook Music Dashboard allowing companies to offer streaming music to Facebook’s audience which is said to be north of 700 million users!  Now here is the tricky part…we already know how Facebook is tied in with Microsoft (using Bing for search & just announced yesterday it will be using Skype for video calling/chat).  Well the key here is that Facebook doesn’t seem very Apple friendly & Apple is the biggest player in the streaming music business with their iCloud & iTunes music store.

ATRN’s Kazaa music dashboard is very well going to be one of the services offered…why are we so sure?  The barriers to entry to start ups in this space are very difficult as companies must obtain the necessary “on demand” streaming licenses from the Big Four music labels. It has been widely reported that the European streaming music service Spotify has procured only three of the four licenses necessary and that they are aiming for a July launch in the US, but it has takenSpotify almost 2 years past the original expected launch date to get the licensing deals done. Google (Nasdaq: GOOGreportedly tried for over a year to work out a licensing deal with the labels before walking away and Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN) found the process so daunting that they are tying to circumvent the process altogether.

ATRN’s Kazaa has all 4 “on demand” streaming licenses from the Big Four music labels!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

On the downside of this even if ATRN’s management of its Kazaa subsidiary fails miserably other heavyweights such as Google or Amazon who have been unable to secure the streaming licenses from the Big Four music labels could very well attempt to buy out ATRN just for the purposes of acquiring these licenses so they don’t have to wait to jump into the streaming music space!

One only has to look at the impact Facebook has had on the gaming industry.  Companies like Zynga, Playdom, PopCap, GLUU, COOL, sprung up from start ups or little known companies to now being household names worth billions of dollars.  Music IS JUST AS BIG AS GAMING IF NOT BIGGER!  Music was the driving force that sprung the popularity of Myspace.com in its heyday.  Everyone listens to music, but not everyone has the time to play games!  Once the Facebook Music Dashboard is launched 700 million people will be looking into streaming music directly from their Facebook accounts.  We’re surprised Facebook hasn’t integrated the music dashboard over the years, but its finally coming & now is your chance to start looking into companies that could become leaders in this space.

We’re not going overboard here.  Our expectations are simple.  What Zynga was to Facebook gaming is what Spotify will be to Facebook Music.  Spotify is a privately held company & the only way to purchase shares is either by buying them through either Sharespost or Secondmarket & you need to be a qualified accredited investor to do so.  (Don’t rush its already trading at a $1 Billion valuation).  We believe ATRN with its widely known Kazaa streaming music player will AT LEAST become as big of a player in the Facebook Music Dashboard as GLUU has been to mobile gaming.  GLUU was once trading for $0.25 per share before the Facebook gaming craze took off.  GLUU’s valuation at the time was around $15 million similar to what ATRN is valued at today.  COOL the other Facebookgaming company that saw its value skyrocket was once trading at a share price of only $0.50.  COOL was then valued at around $20 million, once again right around where ATRN’s value sits at today.  Today GLUU trades at a market cap of $300 million & is still not profitable & COOL is trading at a market cap of $131 million!

Both GLUU & COOL aren’t even close to be leaders in the Facebook gaming space, but investors poured millions of dollars in both companies!  Imagine what could happen to the valuation of ATRN in the coming months when the Facebook Music Dashboard is finally launched & Kazaa begins to offer its streaming services.  Remember the barriers to entry in the streaming music business are far greater than the gaming space & ATRN’s Kazaa already has all the licenses needed from the Big Four music labels in the streaming music space.  Matter of fact Kazaa already has tens of thousands of paying subscribers to their service its just investors have yet to realize the potential of ATRN or better yet what ATRN really is!!!!!  We believe that the Facebook Music Dashboard will be a BIGGER HIT than Facebook gaming has been & we also believe you should look very closely at ATRN & should think of accumulating shares to be early in the next hot sector to sweep Wall Street shortly… STREAMING MUSIC!

EVEN IF ATRN’s Kazaa business fails, no larger company such as Google or Amazon is interested in buying them out for the sake of easily acquiring their streaming music licenses from the Big Four labels, ATRN will still be one of the only publicly traded companies in the streaming music sector that investors can easily buy to play the popularity & media frenzy created around this sector.  Look what happened with Netflix & streaming movies, with Zynga, GLUU, COOL, & Facebookgames, the same thing will without a doubt happen with ATRN once the Facebook Music Dashboard is officially launched.

Now having said all that lets get to this mornings stocks to watch.

ATRN – 3.14 – I think you can understand why we’re very bullish on this company if you read up above.  Not to mention ATRN is a low float Nasdaq listed stock with a very large short position.  Just went news hit that ATRN’s Kazaa music was available on the iPhone & iPad we saw the share price of ATRN jump from $2.50 to almost $8 before retracing.  Soon enough investors will realize the potential here just like they realized the potential of such small players in theFacebook gaming space like GLUU & COOL

Facebook music integration may include ATRN – Kazaa

18 Sep

Facebook will roll out its music integration on Sep. 22. Facebook doesn’t like playing favorites, so our bet is that Facebook will open up its music platform to several music service companies. There is a chance of the integration including Spotify, ATRN – Kazaa and other companies.

Integration qualification: ATRN – Kazaa is an important Dashboard player with US consumer name/brand recognition, which owned 800 million users before. ATRN is owning Kazaa. New CEO, Stuart Goldfarb until recently was the President and CEO of Bertelsmann Direct North America, which is a $20 billion giant, and described as “the most international media corporation in the world”. He commented, “Atrinsic is one of only a handful of companies — just a handful – that has license agreements with the record labels, allowing it to take advantage of this massive opportunity in the delivery of streaming music. We are engaged in adding and integrating rich social media into our Kazaa music service, including utilization of Facebook’s, and other well distributed social media tools and platforms.” John Gilliam wrote, “Kazaa may benefit from being one of only two streaming music services to be publicly traded (Pandora is the other) and it is the only publicly traded “on demand” streaming music service.” Obviously, ATRN-Kazaa is well qualified for Facebook music integration.

Intergration match: Mark Gomes wrote, “Facebook is in the process of rolling out its Music Dashboard. The anticipated structure of Facebook’s Music Dashboard greatly favors on-demand license holders. Appropriately, ATRN has already invested R&D resources to integrate Kazaa with Facebook. Considering that music addresses a much larger audience than games, the Music Dashboard promises to have a much bigger impact.” John Gilliam wrote, “Kazaa has the third largest base of subscribers and among the best social media integrations with features that allow you to follow your Facebook friends or other Kazaa users, see what they are listening to and play songs from their playlists.” In addition, ATRN already started the partnership with Facebook in Atrinsic Interactive. They even demonstrated “Want to tap into over 350 million users in the social media environment? Nobody does it better than Atrinsic Interactive’s social media network.” There is a perfect match for the integration between Facebook and ATRN.

Integration mode: “Facebook doesn’t like playing favorites, so our bet is that Facebook will open up its music platform to other third-party developers”, so Facebook music integration should be inclusive. There is a chance of the integration including ATRN – Kazaa.

We have lots of good news for this company: ATRN recently hired Nathan Fong as Chief Financial Officer, which is an improvement of management with Stuart Goldfarb.  Trinad Capital raises stake in Atrinsic to 8.3% from 6.8% on 09/07. Gradient upgrades ATRINSIC, INC. from HOLD to BUY on 09/06. ATRN got a new patent on 08/23. However, ATRN/Kazaa’s market cap is only about $15 million. It is due to zero investor recognition that Atrinsic is owning Kazaa and its “on demand” licenses alone are worth over $100 million.

When Facebook announces music integration including ATRN – Kazaa, more and more buyers will come here for the good moment. If 5% of the traders (volume) in Pandora brought that capital to ATRN, the stock could easily move over $10 in a week. The potential of ATRN – Kazaa which has been described in Mark Gomes’ article, will start to be realized.

Disclosure: I am long ATRN.

Only for ATRN longs

17 Sep

1. What decides our economical fate? Not any regulation, not anyone else, it is ourselves.  Our economical fate is in our hands. Trust yourself. We are successful in protecting and locking our shares. We should be able to invite new buyers and realize the potential for ATRN too. We want to tell the stock market: there is a stock, and the name is ATRN. There is a group of people. They can help each other, and share information. If we work together, nobody can stop us to make big money, no matter how rich they are. We will not only stand from where we fell off, but also jump to a new height. Simply because we made a right choice with a stock having great potential, and very confident with our united power.

2. The key to succeed in the second step is to let buyers realize the potential of ATRN – Kazaa. The bottom line is name recognition of ATRN/Kazaa. If we are very confident and work together, nothing can stop us to make big money including silence. Thank watingtables for sharing.

“Facebook doesn’t like playing favorites, so our bet is that Facebook will open up its music platform to other third-party developers”, so ATRN – Kazaa might be already included.

http://www.newsy.com/videos/facebook-launching-music-service/

3. It is not surprising that Facebook will announce music integration including Spotify, ATRN – Kazaa and other music service companies on September 22 . It is not surprising that Mark Gomes or John Gilliam will write an article to discuss the potential of ATRN – Kazaa. It is not surprising that ATRN stock price will return to $6 or higher.

5. Action plan: In the week of Sep. 22, our price tag is fixed. If Facebook integration with ATRN is inclusive, the price tag is $9. So we do not care about the daily change. We will hold tight, lock our shares. When Facebook integration news including ATRN is announced, there is a big chance that the potential for ATRN – Kazaa will be realized. We will get our full refunds back with big interest.

Perfect time to buy ATRN – Kazaa with Facebook News

14 Sep

Facebook will roll out its music integration on Sep. 22. Facebook doesn’t like playing favorites, so our bet is that Facebook will open up its music platform to several music service companies. There is a chance of the integration including Spotify, ATRN – Kazaa and other companies. Kazaa is an important dashboard player with US consumer name/brand recognition and having 800 million users before. Kazaa paid over $100m for the licenses and Spotify, Apple & Google were all asked to pay closer to $150m for them over the last few months. ATRN recently raised cash and landed the heaviest-hitting CEO. His name is Stuart Goldfarb and until recently he was the President and CEO of Bertelsmann Direct North America, which is a $20 billion giant. If only 5% of the traders (volume) in Pandora brought that capital to ATRN, the stock could easily move over $10 in a week, four times of current price.

The following links are attached for your interests.

https://flying123m.wordpress.com/2011/09/13/atrn-true-potential/

http://www.newsy.com/videos/facebook-launching-music-service/

The True Potential of ATRN – Kazaa

13 Sep

1. With Facebook: Facebook is in the process of rolling out its Music Dashboard, which greatly favors on-demand license holders. Appropriately, ATRN has already invested R&D resources to integrate Kazaa with Facebook. Considering that music addresses a much larger audience than games, the Music Dashboard promises to have a much bigger impact.

Zynga has been the big winner on Facebook games and its IPO is expected to value the company in the range of $10 billion. This suggests that there could be several $1 billion+ winners in the Facebook music battle. However, ATRN is one of only a few players with the necessary licenses. Yes, $1.2 billion…with a “B”. With a track record like that, growing ATRN’s revenue to a couple hundred million dollars doesn’t seem far fetched at all.

As eye-popping as that move would be, it would come as no surprise to some — ATRN’s shares were over $50 in 2008 before the market collapsed (they got as high as $68 in 2007). A lack of institutional coverage has contributed to ATRN’s failure to head back toward those highs. However, with Pandora’s IPO and increased attention in this space, that could change soon.

Privately-held players are also fetching premium valuations. For example,  Spotify reportedly raised another $100 million in March, valuing the company at $1 billion, more than triple its prior valuation. A similar valuation would send ATRN’s shares rocketing to $50, a 20-bagger from here.

Conclusions: ATRN exhibits classic characteristics of a company with grossly undervalued shares. Its most coveted assets are not reflected on its balance sheet. There is a chance of the integration including Spotify, ATRN – Kazaa and other music service companies.

2. With Pandora: Pandora’s music rights are more common and limited in scope. Indeed, the market seems headed toward an end-game except Facebook music integration. There are two possibilities: 1) Pandora will acquire one of on-demand license holders. If Pandora chooses Kazaa, ATRN shares will jump a lot in a short term.  2) The remaining on-demand license holders will develop Pandora-like functionality. Kazaa has already made some major moves to become more like Pandora. Thus, ATRN has been thrust into the right place at the right time.

3. With other big company: Writing software to stream music is relatively easy. But entering the Internet music market against Pandora is not as simple as many believe. With the explosive popularity of Internet-based music, major record labels have become resistant to hand out new on-demand licenses to anyone. Just ask Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) — they’ve tried for a long time with no luck. If these giants want a legitimate and significant foothold in the marketplace, they may need to acquire one of the existing on-demand license holders. However, Rhapsody and Napster’s owners are unlikely to sell at an attractive price. As for the private vendors, only two appear ripe for acquisition, but their VCs surely know the value of their licensing rights (value listed). Thus, ATRN may be the only underpriced asset left in the market.

  • Viacom : $33 billion; Best Buy : $11 billion; Sirius : $8.5 billion
  • Pandora : $3 billion; CC Media : $650 million; RealNetworks : $500 million

And here’s where it gets good…

Kazaa paid $100 million for those hard-to-get licensing rights. However, this value does not show up on ATRN’s balance sheet. As result, ATRN’s market cap has drifted well below those levels. At present the company is only valued around $15 million. A $100 million valuation for its music licenses (which now appear unobtainable) implies that ATRN’s shares (which have recently traded in the $2 – $6 range) should be worth more than $15. Forget being poised to triple…based on this metric, shares of ATRN could be poised to six times.

4. Management: The company recently raised cash and landed the heaviest-hitting CEO I’ve ever seen such a small public company attract. His name is Stuart Goldfarb and until recently he was the President and CEO of Bertelsmann Direct North America. For those who don’t know, Bertelsmann is a $20 billion giant, described by Wikipedia as “the most international media corporation in the world”. As ATRN’s press release states, Goldfarb built Bertelsmann DNA into “the world’s largest direct marketer of music, DVDs and books (with over 20 subscription and membership “club” businesses including BMG Music Service, Columbia House, Book-of-the-Month Club, Doubleday Book Club and yourmusic.com), serving over 14 million members with revenues of over $1.2 billion”.

5. Improvement: Kazaa is moving forward with some exciting enhancements and innovations. In Q1, it released its optimized mobile browser in March, enabling users to stream music to their mobile devices, a critical step toward competing on the same level as Pandora. Not surprisingly, management indicated that this new capability instantly resulted in a “significant improvement” in virtually every important user / usage metric. In fact, subscriber-growth accelerated to an annualized rate of nearly 50%. With its new Pandora-like radio functionality, Kazaa appears well-positioned to show continued accelerated growth…

Most notably, we believe that ATRN will soon offer Kazaa via an iPhone / iPad app. When Pandora released its iPad app, in 2010, sales growth went through the roof. After posting 35% growth in 2009, Pandora’s sales nearly tripled in 2010. They’re on pace to do so again this year. If ATRN follows suit, sales could hit $230M 24-months from now.

That may sound like a stretch, but Pandora has already proven it can be done (did you know who Pandora was 2-years ago?). Besides, even if ATRN “only” grows to $100M over the next 2-years, it would be nearly as big as Pandora is today. A comparable valuation would be $2 billion or $300 per share, 100x today’s levels.

Most importantly, ATRN’s market is now getting hot (in this case, red hot). Yet the shares remain under the radar because institutions and retail investors have yet to rediscover it.

Looking at ATRN’s 5-year chart, it’s clear that the stock has been forming a base over the last year. In fact, the stock is now starting to rise, indicating that sellers are no-longer be willing to sell at a discount (or at all). This could lead to sharp gains in a short period of time, because most of ATRN’s shares are in the hands of insiders or large buyers like Trinad Management. Any such move is sure to hit traders’ screens for daily gains. Soon after that, the cat will be out of the bag.

In the meantime, for a few dollars per share investors get a company that paid $15 per share for music licenses which much larger companies are now desperate to obtain. With success, ATRN’s stock could rise by 5x, 10x, or even 100x. With failure, investors could still profit handsomely, as AAPL, GOOG, P, or another eager company swoops in for the ammunition (licenses) it needs to enter hot music service field.